Monday Morning Notebook

Random thoughts and portfolio update

This post won’t hang together like other newsletters. I’m only now starting to feel normal after recovering from what I suspect was a case of Covid. I wanted to collect some random thoughts and updates in one place.

2024 Outlook

Andy Millette had me back on his show to talk about pockets of value in the current market. Since this dropped, I’ve sold Kazatomprom but I am sitting on a potential big winner in Salazar as the permits I mentioned have been approved.

For me being public about stocks provides a sanity check and quick feedback, particularly when I’m wrong. That said, I’m not your mother and I’m not going to give you my model or hand you my notes. It’s why I enjoyed this podcast on being public and being wrong.

Failure teaches so much more than success for those with the ability to see their own faults. Bill Ackman’s interviews on JC Penney, Valeant and Target are worth seeking out - the greats don’t make the same mistakes over and over again.

My version of JetBlu/Spirit is Midwest Energy Emissions. MEEC is scheduled to go to court against the CERT defendants on February 26th or 27th. I see a lot of upside with a defined catalyst and a tight timeline, and I’ve sized the position accordingly. The market vehemently disagrees. However this turns out I suspect it’ll make my year.

Portfolio Updates

Buys and sells since the beginning of the year:

Sold: Kazatomprom

Bought:

• Kenorland Minerals

• Sprott Uranium Trust

Added:

• Midwest Energy

• Salazar Resources

• Vulcan Minerals

• Altius Minerals

My open commodity positions now look like this …

• Filo

• Salazar Resources

• Alphamin

• Kazatomprom Sprott Uranium Trust

• Vulcan Minerals

• Ecora Resources

• Altius Minerals

• Kenorland Minerals

• Elemental Altus

• Minera Alamos

• CVR Partners

• Chibougamau Independent Mines

My thinking on triggering the taxes on Kazatomprom to pivot to the physical commodity can be found here. When it comes to production issues, I’ve decided to panic first and let someone else figure out if there are more surprises to come. A disappointing outcome but far from fatal.

Buying a full position in Kenorland in the low to mid 60-cent range shouldn’t have been possible after KLD announced the conversion of their Frotet stake into a 3.25% royalty + optional payments. But we’re in a really crappy market for junior miners so it took a few hours for everyone to wake up.

With sentiment this bad, I am hunting cheap and uncapped NSRs.

Other Portfolio Updates

Ether Capital should be announcing the results of their strategic review shortly.

Kaspi is now listed on Nasdaq, the first step to an eventual rerate.

Ecora is trading at a 5-year low.

Interesting Links

Plenty of Carl Weathers obits out there, but this was my favourite.

You’re supposed to root for Rocky. Unless you’re an 11-year-old Black kid sitting in the theater.

That kid was conflicted.

Weathers did something with the Apollo Creed character that should have been impossible to do - take a knock off of an iconic character (Ali) and make that knock off iconic.

---

Not the first time someone’s connected poker to business, but well written.

---

Dream Office REIT is selling a stabilized building on the fringes of the downtown core. We’re about to learn how accurate the carrying values are for Allied REIT among others.

---

---

Copper

Years of relentless growth are finally catching up with China’s copper smelters. There is not enough copper concentrates around to satisfy the demand from the world's smelters.