Mid-year review: Metals and Mining Positions
A look at the portfolio heading into the second half of 2025
In this issue …
Updated portfolio
Royalties to watch
Briefs
Interesting links
Metals and Mining Portfolio
As of July, 2025
A lot of sales to reposition the portfolio since the last time I put one of these updates out. The idea is to get exposure to irreplaceable assets and structural demand for gold from central bank buying. Essentially I think there’s a long-term supply/demand imbalance in the gold market.
What’s missing is pure-play copper exposure. For now, copper upside comes from a possible spin out from Minera Alamos and the prospect generators.
Mining
Minera Alamos
KGCRF - Kinross Contingent Value Rights
Industrials
Comstock Inc. - Silver
Aecon - Nuclear
CVR Partners - Urea
Royalties
Undisclosed Royalty Co.
Triple Flag Precious Metals
Star Royalties
Royalty Management Holding Company
Exploration/Prospect Generators
Kenorland Minerals
Orogen 2.0
Kingfisher Metals
Vulcan Minerals
Specials/Workouts
Metals X
Chibougamau Independent Mines
Eagle Royalties
Raw Commodities
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust
Long time holdings like Centrus Energy, Sailfish Royalty and Elemental Altus leave the portfolio as multi-baggers to make way for gold exposure trading at distressed levels. I also culled laggards like Salazar and Sable Resources, where a distressed buying strategy limited losses and helped avoid the wipeouts junior mining stocks are infamous for.
I think this is a local top for uranium stocks. Physical uranium? Yes. Nuclear construction exposure? Also yes.
Uranium mining stocks? No thanks. At least for now.
Minera Alamos/Star Royalties: A Copperstone story
When you’re buying deep value you don’t pick the assets, the assets pick you. Copperstone is an underground restart project in Arizona. It was a stranded asset inside the functionally bankrupt Sabre Gold Mines. As part of Minera Alamos it’s the catalyst for two companies to become multi-baggers.
My baseline assumptions for Copperstone are 40,000 ounces of annual production for 15 years. Given the Mexican permit hell Minera Alamos is dealing with, they’ll build Copperstone and put it into production or die trying. All I have to do is wait.
I’ve tweeted multiple times on my valuation of Star. If my projections for MAI are correct, those numbers are low.
Kinross CVRs
My cost basis is down to a penny after trimming in the low 70s. I’ll have a decision to make on whether to hold through or sell if these contingent value rights start trading above $1. Regardless, what started as a simple arbitrage is turning into a career-making trade.
Comstock
Two potential high growth businesses in a deep value wrapper. The non-core assets CEO Corrado Degasperis is actively working to monetize exceed the current market cap. There’s also more than $200-million in tax losses to shield future earnings. I’ll admit I wasn’t a believer at first, but this is a high conviction position for me now. I’m buying more when I can and the stupid cheap valuation of Comstock played a big part in recent sales.
Triple Flag buys Orogen’s Silicon NSR
This started as an arbitrage. Triple Flag’s purchase of Orogen’s Silicon NSR gives shareholders:
$1.63 in cash or 0.05355 of a Triple Flag share
0.25 of a share in Orogen 2.0 - which is some cash and everything Orogen had before except Silicon.
In the $1.70s where I bought Orogen this valued ‘Orogen 2.0’ at between 25 and 40 cents. I’ve been convinced of the merits of both companies and will be keeping them as long-term holdings - another reason the other royalty companies were sold. If there’s consolidation of the royalty space, Triple Flag is best equipped to swallow a large prize. It’s well run and now has its cornerstone asset that will produce for decades once it’s up and running.
Not long for the portfolio
CVR Partners has generated a nice income stream, but I’ll be looking to use recent strength to exit and raise cash to put into higher conviction positions. I’m going to claim temporary insanity on buying Metals X again and leave it at that … I never want to be in a position where I’m cheering rebel forces so my stock moves.
Cornerstone royalties
With Orogen’s Silicon royalty off the market, these are the royalties I track. They’re the type of asset a major pays a sickening premium for - gold NSRs on long life assets.
Silicon: ALS.TO
Odyssey: GROY
Spring Valley/Moonlight: FISH.V
Timok royalty basket: EMX.V
Frotet: KLD.V
Much easier than tracking dozens of companies holding hundreds of royalties. See the example of IAMGOLD’s Cote mine below.
There are potential cornerstones inside Elemental Altus, and mid tiers OR Royalties and Sandstorm Gold, it’s just unlikely we see them taken over.
Briefs
My Base Carbon trade post-mortem...
Carbon Streaming cash box
Someone at some point was going to make Anthony Milewski so toxic he could never be involved with another public company. I did not think that person would be newsletter writer and Carbon Streaming CEO Marin Katusa. The company filed a bombshell of a civil suit against Milewski, former CEO Justin Cochrane and others to recover more than $40-million paid out in compensation and corporate expenses.
One thing the statement of claim made clear is Carbon Streaming is not an operating business and probably never was - it’s a corporate shell with a cash hoard, a legal claim that it’s owed more cash, dubious carbon credits that could be converted to cash and some tax losses. Katusa has been buying shares in the open market and the stock has been on a tear since the suit was filed.
Do you trust Katusa? I sure don’t.
His newsletter business probably depends on turning NETZ around, but I won’t be going anywhere near Carbon Streaming. The money is the prize. Juniors don’t distribute cash to shareholders and wind up the company. I’m watching to see which mining promoter eventually ends up with the money, the shell or both.
More like Equinox blows
You already know Equinox Gold is a bloated company buying up assets in an attempt to force index funds to buy the stock. You know this because they told us. Did you know how badly that strategy is failing? Since first announcing their acquisition of Calibre Mining on February 24:
Equinox shares have fallen from $6.80 to $5.68
GLD has risen from US$272 to $301.22
Bad execution. Bad capital structure. And a surprising amount of bad jurisdictions (Los Filos, Libertad, Limon).
There’s no reason to own Equinox Gold. But it’s big just like they wanted - and what index funds give they can also take away. I’ll be looking to buy puts if Valentine and Greenstone really hit the skids.
Interesting links
There’s a peace deal in place, but your Congolese mining assets aren’t safe until Rwandan troops actually withdraw. The relative sizes of the countries is misleading. Rwanda is densely populated and can overrun Congo anytime it wants.
The Russians have control of a key lithium field in Ukraine.
China is still choking exports of rare earths.
North Korea has a beach resort.
Thanks for this summary. I may have to join you on STRR.V. I've been looking at QTWO as well after the Lithium hype has now popped. Seems like a good NA deposit and batteries aren't going away.